What Is the Rico aos Poucos Market Thermometer?
Rico aos Poucos has soft-launched the Market Thermometer, a free public tool that measures the daily level of optimism or pessimism in the press and on YouTube regarding the economy and various asset classes.
The Market Thermometer page is updated throughout the day, capturing the collective sentiment that typically drives investor behavior. Available in three languages—Portuguese, English, and Spanish—the page monitors both global and local moods, segmenting the data to assist independent investors in their decision-making.
The tool analyzes overall sentiment regarding Brazil and the world, while also breaking down the specific mood across multiple asset classes. Investors can track thermometers for real estate investment funds (FIIs), equities, the U.S. dollar, fixed income, gold, the U.S. stock market, and Bitcoin. For a more granular view, the system divides the data into specific FII segments and stock sectors. All of this information is consolidated on a scale from 0 to 100, divided into five sentiment brackets ranging from very pessimistic to very optimistic, with pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic in between. This makes it easy to gauge at a glance whether the market environment is driven by fear or greed, without needing to read dozens of reports.
How Does Artificial Intelligence Calculate Market Sentiment?
The Rico aos Poucos tool automatically monitors 75 news portals and 181 medium-to-large YouTube channels to extract the actual sentiment of their publications.
This data collection process is fully automated and continuous, ensuring the index reflects rapid shifts in financial market sentiment. The platform's key differentiator is its analytical depth: the artificial intelligence developed for the project reads entire articles and transcribes full video remarks, rather than limiting its analysis to titles or content descriptions.
This thorough approach prevents distortions caused by catchy or clickbait headlines, which often fail to reflect the actual content of an analysis. Furthermore, the system recognizes that a single piece of content can express multiple distinct opinions. For example, a YouTube analyst might express strong pessimism regarding Brazil's fiscal situation while remaining highly optimistic about the U.S. dollar or dollar-denominated assets. The artificial intelligence separates these views and assigns each one to its respective thermometer. To ensure auditability and reliability, every identified opinion preserves the exact excerpt from the text or speech that serves as proof for that classification.
The final 0-100 index calculation is not a simple average. The figure is generated through a mathematical formula that gives greater weight to recent publications, ensuring the thermometer reflects current market conditions. In addition, the formula adjusts for the historical bias of each information source, neutralizing channels or portals that tend to be systematically pessimistic or optimistic. Purely factual news reporting daily price increases or decreases for an asset is discarded by the algorithm. The goal is to measure opinions, analyses, and projections, rather than simply replicating the price movements investors already see in their brokerage platforms.
What Are "Trending Narratives" and How Do They Affect Investors?
Trending narratives highlight which topics are gaining traction in the media by comparing the frequency of repeated terms over the past 7 days with the previous week.
This feature acts as an opinion-trend tracker, allowing investors to identify which themes are dominating public debate and influencing crowd behavior. Monitoring these narratives is essential because the repetitive, widespread coverage of a single topic in the press and on social media can shape investor sentiment, frequently fueling herd mentality.
By observing the emergence and growth of these narratives, users of the Market Thermometer can determine whether a general decline in the share prices of a real estate fund, for example, is driven by temporary media panic or actual fundamentals. Seeing when pessimism or optimism begins spreading in a coordinated fashion across different portals and channels helps long-term investors maintain composure and find opportunities where others see only risk. The tool makes it clear that monitoring these waves of opinion serves as a diagnostic of the market's psychological environment, rather than a recommendation to buy or sell assets.
What Is the Thermometer's Role in the New FII Analysis System?
The Market Thermometer is one component of the new real estate fund analysis system that Rico aos Poucos is developing for upcoming releases of its platform.
The investment platform is undergoing a complete overhaul to deliver even more robust tools to retail investors. In the new ecosystem under development, FII analysis screens will feature unprecedented resources, such as dividend projections, dividend sustainability analysis, price forecasting, fair value calculations, and detailed ratings to assess risk, management quality, and overall fund health.
Within this new framework, market sentiment captured by the Thermometer serves as a valuable input currently being tested to refine mathematical forecasting models. We are evaluating how daily variations in press and influencer sentiment can be integrated into predictive pricing and distribution models. Although the sentiment tool is already available for public use, full integration with the new FII analysis screens, dividend forecasting, and pricing features will roll out soon as the system completes all validation and calibration stages.
How to Access the Tool and What to Expect During the Testing Phase
The Market Thermometer page is now open to the public on the Rico aos Poucos website, operating as a soft launch subject to ongoing technical adjustments.
Because this is an initial public testing phase, the platform displays a low-sample warning during its first days of operation. This alert is necessary as the database is gradually populated with historical daily analyses, and fine-tuning of the artificial intelligence algorithms is ongoing.
Rico aos Poucos emphasizes that the Market Thermometer should not be interpreted as a guaranteed price prediction tool or an investment recommendation. It is a market-reading instrument designed to help investors understand the psychological forces driving asset prices. The updated version of the asset analysis screens, which will integrate all of this data in a unified format, will be released shortly. Until then, all investors are invited to visit the Thermometer page, explore sentiment data for FIIs, stocks, and the U.S. dollar, and closely follow how market sentiment shifts day by day.
